One creepy crap shoot

What the hell was President Saakakashvili thinking to go poking the Bear with such a sharp stick? Strong leadership is important and the ideal of democracy is a good thing but why push it when you are pretty sure that the consequences will be tragic.

Russians are notorious for their bullying and land grabbing. Think of the wholly unsuccessful attempt to protect the commie population in Afghanistan against the mujahedeen. Hard to pick a favorite in that one but I think most of us wanted to see the 3CP get the short end. War-crossed Chechnya is a federal subject of Russia that has been fighting them since the USSR broke up in 1991. This murderous and wasteful conflict actually goes back 80 plus years. They’re still fighting.

Those of us of a certain age remember the early TV footage of war when Khrushchev sent tanks into Hungary to put down that revolution. The tanks reappeared in 1968 when Alexander Dubcek had to get slapped around by the Kremlin for trying a similar stunt in what is now the Czech Republic. The heinous aftermath of these “conflicts” has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, even more wounded, orphans and homelessness. It’s insane.

It boggles to think that Saakashvili thought he could pull this off and it makes it a little unbelievable that he would think that the west and particularly the US would come to his aid. It would be a bad idea even if we weren’t stretched so thin militarily. We shouldn’t go to war just because we can. There are strategic interests but that is true else where and many of us think that phrase is just code for “blood for oil.” When I read in the Times that neo-cons think that “promoting democracy is the paramount goal” I think of how hideously wrong they were on invading Iraq. In the same article I read McCain saying good things about his “friends” the Georgians (he nominated President Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 – good call) even though it seems that they have pushed Putin to what most observers would conclude was an obvious and avoidable outcome. And I do mean Putin. Nobody thinks Medvedev thinks for the country.

It isn’t clear who fired the first shot when “fighting broke out in South Ossetia” but Tom Ordeman Jr. of Spero News has this analysis:

“Fighting broke out earlier this week between the Georgian military and South Ossetia's rebel forces. Despite an initial ceasefire agreement, fighting flared back up, eventually resulting in Georgian forces shooting down two Russian aircraft. (Guardian, Times). The Russian military responded by sending tanks into South Ossetia and bombing Georgian air bases. The Russian incursion has allegedly escalated to air attacks on Russian cities outside South Ossetia. How this incident will end, and what its impact will be, is anyone's guess.”

But by the time the Migs got shot down, they had already taken out an Israeli made (un-manned) drone belonging to the peace loving Georgians.

I guess, since no one got killed, I wouldn’t have shot down the Russian Migs even for that. On the other hand, nice shooting! You’d think the Russkies would have planes that a little country like Georgia couldn’t blow out of the sky. O well, more boys being boys with big toys. What fun is it to have all this cool stuff to shoot if you don’t get to squeeze the trigger?

Now they have called a truce after Russia has decimated the Georgians' military, killed a couple of thousand citizens and soldiers, and ruined ancient architecture and modern infrastructure. BarackO said yesterday, “there is no possible justification for these attacks.” He’s wrong. The justification is to send a clear message from Moscow not to mess with us. It does remind one of the adage, “If he takes a knife to a fight, you take a gun.”

The Russians are not going to take any guff from US or our allies and they feel provoked by the Bush policy of cozying up to one of its neighbors, who just happen to have a lot of oil being pumped across its borders. McCain’s bluster about kicking the Rooshians out of the G8 makes about as much sense as a “gas holiday.” I wish he would take a holiday from gassing on about how he “knows” that every American is a Georgian. That’s more than a little over the top. It has a Howard Dean in Iowa eeriness to it.

This thing will blow over because it’s stupid and we need Russian oil and, thankfully, civilians don’t give two shits about all this macho posturing. But look at the mess that is left behind. Two thousand dead “bred of an airy word … A plague a’ both your houses.”